{"subscriber":false,"subscribedOffers":{}} Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya | Health Affairs

Research Article

Global Health Policy

Epidemiological And Health Systems Implications Of Evolving HIV And Hypertension In South Africa And Kenya

Affiliations
  1. Brianna Osetinsky is a PhD candidate in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health, in Providence, Rhode Island.
  2. Jan A. C. Hontelez is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany.
  3. Mark N. Lurie is an associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health.
  4. Stephen T. McGarvey is director of the International Health Institute and a professor in the Department of Epidemiology, both at the Brown University School of Public Health.
  5. Gerald S. Bloomfield is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine and Global Health, Duke University School of Medicine, in Durham, North Carolina.
  6. Sonak D. Pastakia is a professor of pharmacy practice with the Purdue Kenya Partnership, Purdue University College of Pharmacy, in Eldoret, Kenya.
  7. Richard Wamai is an associate professor in the Department of Cultures, Societies, and Global Studies, Northeastern University, in Boston, Massachusetts.
  8. Till Bärnighausen is the Alexander von Humboldt University Professor and director of the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University. He is also senior faculty at the Africa Health Research Institute, in Somkhele, South Africa, and an adjunct professor of global health at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston.
  9. Sake J. de Vlas is a professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  10. Omar Galárraga ([email protected]) is an associate professor in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health.
PUBLISHED:No Accesshttps://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287

Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are facing an ongoing HIV epidemic and increasing burden of noncommunicable disease. With the focus shifting to the development of comprehensive primary health care and chronic disease treatment, multidisease modeling is integral to estimating future health care needs. We extended an established agent-based model of HIV transmission to include hypertension in two rural settings: KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya. We estimated that from 2018 to 2028 hypertension prevalence would increase from 40 percent to 46 percent in KwaZulu-Natal and from 29 percent to 35 percent in western Kenya, while HIV prevalence is stabilizing and predicted to decrease. As the health system burden in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, innovative chronic disease treatment and the broadening of successful programs, such as integrated HIV and noncommunicable disease care, are necessary to reach universal health care coverage.

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